From what I’m reading, the troubles should start to pick up now; harbors being quieter, truckers not having work, … Are any shortages noticeable yet?
ETA:
Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-a-virus
Businesses have been filling their inventories. That’s ending now. Economic pain in terms of job losses should accelerate now. It will still take up to a few weeks before inventories run empty, and the full impact hits consumers. Even a full reversal of Trumpism couldn’t prevent knock-on effects that last into next year.
Remember when COVID supply-chain difficulties made prices shoot up? And several years after that situation peaked prices STILL haven’t gone back to normal? This gonna be like that except COMPLETELY unnecessary, brought to you entirely by MAGA. Remember it when the midterm elections come up in 2 years. That won’t be difficult cuz it will still be going on and will be even worse.
Well some products will go down at first, the ones they can’t sell to other countries any more the supply will skyrocket until they cut production to reduce their losses. So perishable things like certain food, will possibly decrease for a season, then will go up higher/possibly “sky rocker” as when you produce less your profits are lower, so they will have to mark them up / some people will just stop farming. The possibility of the bees dying out seems more worrisome than the tarrifs long term though for many foods.
I think shortages will be short-lived as companies and retailers just have to suck it up and pay more. People won’t be able to buy as much stuff, so layoffs and a recession or depression are likely, but there’s not much I can think of doing to prepare for that.
But they don’t have to suck it up, not really. They can just stop buying entire classes of items. The question is what Americans will now live without.
Food and housing are the only classes many have left.
Cargo container bookings are down 60%. 60%! Thats an incredible drop, and it really hasn’t even started yet.
I’m ready for a “Hot Tariff Summer.”
I’ve been on a no-purchase kick for a while now, even before HitlerPig was elected. We have become such a culture of consumerism that it had started to disgust me. I’ve embraced the “re-use, repair, re-sell, recycle” philosophy. If i need something, i try to buy it used.
I’m a guitarist, so I buy used guitars when i get a good deal, clean them up, fix them, and re-sell them at a small profit. It puts a beautiful instrument back into service, allows a poor or new musician an opportunity to have an inexpensive but quality instrument, and its music makes the world a slightly more beautiful place.
I even went on a much-needed diet (down 80 pounds so far, and still going), and decreasing my consumption, and spending less money with evil corporations, is a primary motivation.
So let the shelves be empty of cheap Chinese-made consumer goods, i don’t need them, despite how much advertising and marketing tells me i do.
The silver lining is that if tariffs become a longterm thing, people will be forced to come around to my way of thinking, and when the tariffs finally end, corporations may be surprised to find that nobody needs their shiny crap any more.
clean them up, fix them,
As someone else that does “clean up” and “fix them” for other non-instrument items, are you concerned about your supply/cost of replacement parts and supplies? Most of mine come from China.
Somewhat, mostly strings. Most of the rest is just adjustments, using tools I already have. I still have a fair stock of strings, but I was thinking of buying a bunch more to hold me over for a while.
Cleaning is also a big part, but that’s easy.
I suppose if it gets bad, and I need to buy tuners and bridges, etc., I can buy a few junk guitars, and cannibalize them for parts.
I can buy a few junk guitars, and cannibalize them for parts.
This is a future I see on my side too. The price will likely go up for our services to support this for a supply of parts though. If we get to that point, you won’t be the only one buying up junk guitars as others will be buying them for the same reason. So the price of junk guitars is going to go up too.
I expect used items of all types are going to increase - clothes, appliances, toys, etc. Goodwill and other thrift shops are about to have the biggest boom period of their history.
Not yet here. Maybe a few more weeks?
Curling up into the fetal position and crying in between protests.
Most aren’t even aware that this is coming.
A large portion of the rest are in denial. So many people can only learn through the lens of their own experience
I can’t wait to watch all the Trump-suckers loose their shit when they find out it’s Trump’s fault. If they can actually comprehend it as true, that is.
They’ll just say it’s Biden’s fault…
That is also my knee-jerk reaction, but with Tariffs it’s a pretty direct correlation to Trump now. Hopefully this will be what finally breaks him?
They’ll say it, but they won’t truly believe it. They’ll know the truth, or at least those that still possess some human awareness. There will always be those that are irredeemable, you can’t worry about them, they’re just lost.
Casual Qur’anic comment, lol. 😅
narrator: they did not
I’m far less worried about the imminent supply shock to the economy and far more worried about the long term damage to things like the FDA. We’ve decided we’re going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don’t trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume. I do have a solid amount of food in my house, and if shelves start emptying I think I’ll be okay for a bit, but that’ll pass. I can’t really leave this country, so I need to be planning for longer term problems too.
It’s quite crazy to hear that the US is about to force UK and EU to buy more chlorinated chicken, and then hear that US will stop salmonela testing while negotiating this.
We’ve decided we’re going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don’t trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume.
Farmers’ markets (or direct from a local farm/butcher) are probably your best bet for what meat you do buy, if you don’t go full veg
I have this fear that we won’t even be able to trust fruits and vegetables. The most common food contaminations in the news always seem to be unwashed lettuce and such, which makes sense because of fertilizers.
I’ve been preparing for some kind of problem with produce for a few years, I just had a gut feeling so I built a vegetable garden 3 years ago. Also have been planting fruit trees everywhere.
While the nation was functioning, meat and dairy would have been regulated by the USDA, not the FDA.
Ive been stockpiling canned proteins like tuna, chicken, clams, oysters, etc. even Spam. They may not be trustworthy in the future, but they are right now, so stack them up.
I can make a cheap but killer soup with a can of chicken, some ramen, and herbs, and i can even grow the herbs myself.
OP’s data shows the U.S. is stocking up tremendously in April, and then maintaining year-on-year patterns after that with a slight downturn that doesn’t even compensate for April’s glut.
I haven’t seen this data before but it shows the opposite of the shortage I was expecting.
You seem to be misreading that.
Please correct me, then. The surprising moment came when I noticed the vertical axis is for year-on-year change and not raw tonnage.
Yes. It goes from much higher than last year to much lower.
My read was that it was much higher to prepare inventory for the tariff shock
I think the issue is you’re waiting for the negatives to be equal to the surplus of one month, when the trend (from three points of data so do with that what you will) is negative. So, ostensibly, after enough months of negatives, there will be much, much more negative than positives.
Yup that’s exactly what I was doing, and I was surprised that the negatives won’t catch up until at least 3 months which brings us to July at the earliest.
Edit: Thanks General I didn’t notice it’s in weeks. So we’re looking at early June which is closer to what we were all thinking.
- The chart shows weeks, not months.
- It shows scheduled arrivals of vessels in LA. It may not be safe to equate that to freight arriving in the US.
Yes, and then, or rather now, incoming shipping collapses.
May still be a few weeks more before it’s critical then.
Canadian here… I’m preparing by buying puts on SPY
Hehe same
Regardless of whether you think something catastrophic will happen tomorrow, next month, next year or never, it’s a smart plan to have an emergency stash of shelf-stable food and drinking water to last 72 hours per person in your household for whatever natural or manmade disaster.
My grandma’s spirit would haunt me from the dead if it found out I only had 72 hours of food in my home.
Food is easy, water is harder
I’m one of those dirty wasteful Italians who buys bottled water, I’ve always got ~50 litres of water at home, and I live in the dampest part of Italy anyway
I have a few dozen gallons of water stashed in my basement but I also purchased three water filters which I can use to get water out of my lake or any stream. I have Sawyers and Katadins.
it’s a smart plan to have an emergency stash of shelf-stable food and drinking water to last 72 hours per person in your household for whatever natural or manmade disaster.
I have plenty of food sitting around, but realistically, 72 hours without food isn’t going to be an issue for an non-infant who doesn’t have some kind of serious medical conditions. Probably make most people in the US healthier.
I’ve fasted for over a week for the hell of it, and people have gone much longer. This guy did it for over a year.
Water is a much-less-forgiving resource.
Sure. Most people probably have a bit of fresh food to rely on in the immediate term if disaster hits, but by the time you get to it, you should have a gauge on how long you will need to make that 72 hours supply actually last. Water is also vital but it does take up more space so as a baseline 72 hours of each is a good starting point.
frequently visiting Maryfield Hospital for medical evaluation
This! I don’t even live in a disaster prone area, but I always make sure we’d be fine without power/water for a few days at least.
I have read testimonies from other people who have gone through economic/political instability and hardship. What i got out of it is that prepping will help for a week to a month maybe. But after that preppers just feel dumb after that as all that work didn’t mean much long term.
The only thing that universally matters is having community ties. Unfortunately… USA aren’t very community friendly or even have the opportunity to create strong local bonds. As all community events are during work hours so only retired people part take in those.
Boomers ventured out on route 66 and never returned. One generation destroyed community for cheap large screen TVs.
During covid, having like 2 months’ worth of food was enough for me. I was able to avoid the chaos at the grocery stores, and by May of 2020, instacart had cleared up enough that I could get food delivered to me.
This is different, obviously, but having 2 months of food to avoid the initial chaos and supply shocks of a disaster is still valuable
I got a passport, and am wrapping up a degree in nursing.
It’s not necessarily my intention to jump ship as soon as I graduate, but knowing that it’s an option will be a great comfort.
Other than that, I stopped eating eggs.
Come to Canada, we want and need nurses!
We always need more nurses in Sweden, I imagine it’s the same in other countries too.
Italy sorely needs nurses as well.
How about generic guys with no special talents in particular but the gift of gab?
For Sweden specifically that could be tricky at the moment with our current government.
Thailand is my backup
I’m torn between something familiar - english speaking, mostly western culture, just for the sake of an easy transition; or somewhere like Thailand where it’s just a completely different world. Like, if I’m going to pack up and move halfway across the globe, might be a good time to dive into something that’ll give me a ton of brand new experiences.
Idk if I’m adventurous enough to actually commit, but the temptation is definitely there.
Thailand felt very foreign, but at the same time there would randomly be things that felt very American to me there.
Do you have dual citizenship? Just because you have a passport doesn’t mean you can just flee the country forever.
You don’t need citizenship to live in a country, just a work visa
America has officially entered the list of shithole countries. Our infamous American arrogance will not help us. No country is going to want our refugees unless they are wealthy or have an in-demand skill. Even then, they will only want to cherry pick the best of the best.
In addition, we will be 2nd class citizens in any country we land in, and will be treated with the same disdain, discrimination, and abuse as immigrants are treated in America.
Better to stay here, and use your energy to fight to take our nation back. Fascism has generally turned out to be unsustainable in the long term, but it requires constant, sustained resitance to dislodge.
The silver lining is that fascist leaders usually face an ignominious, violent end. Let that be your motivation to resist.
I agree with the idea of staying an upholding your values, but as an Italian, let me tell you people can be pretty ambivalent about people from countries like ours, just as I happen to be seen as either a lazy criminal or a poet cook navigator with nothing in-between, you guys can be seen as dumb and vulgar rednecks or cool rock’n’roll cowboys.
Italian here as well and I support this . Became much more woke about the stereotypes we fall in lately, after 15 years around Europe. Especially when people apply Scorsese movies terminology to us: if someone jokes about me being a mafioso I respond with a small lecture about what mafia really is.
Ya but that’s not an easy thing to get for most countries. A lot of that depends on your career background. They don’t take anyone.
Nurses are well in demand all over Europe.
No - that strikes me as an end game move. It’ll enable me to cross the border, and if shit hits the fan that’ll be good enough to then figure out the next steps.
I would need to do WAY more research on prospective point-B’s before diving into dual citizenship.
That said, I don’t really know shit about expatriating, so if anything I just said stands out as glaringly wrong, please do school me!
You’re right about this - as a US / Canadian dual citizen, getting a new citizenship is quite an ordeal and not everyone who applies is approved. The nursing experience you mentioned in a separate comment might be enough to qualify for a work permit and then permanent residence. I know that various provincial governments up here are quietly putting in immigration policies that severely cut immigration numbers, but focus heavily on recruiting healthcare workers.
Dual citizenship is probably a bit premature, I doubt you need to concern yourself with that just yet. I would probably have a few places picked out as likely options for a work visa though, after doing some basic research into pay grade vs cost of living and how much you like/would fit in with the local culture.
You probably already have a vague idea of which countries you might enjoy living it.
Going to Germany as a nurse should be possible. You would need to do some language courses and handle some bureaucracy but we have a big nurse shortage.
language
That is definitely an intimidating step. I speak a little Spanish, but was never particularly good at it, and that’s hailed as one of the ‘easy’ languages. …'course, the stakes are a tad higher now than when I was studying that stuff in highschool…
You pick up languages much more easily when you live somewhere
Prepare? I’m poor lol
Learn to cook beans and rice from scratch. Stock up on them in bulk. Emergency food packs can be bought from $45 and up depending on how many you have to feed and for how long you’re planning to need it.
I already know how to cook poverty foods from living off £8k a year back around 2016.
I feel that from personal experiencto. I learned while earning 0 at the time. Fortunately I was living in Seattle which has/had some great food banks and food resources for the destitute.
Know your communities, people. That’s the prep you need.
“Where two eat, three can eat also.”
My company layed off the newest hire, and bought $50k of materials we need for R&D for the next year and a half. Im in the process of buying a duplex instead of a single family as a hedge, so my cost of living will be low enough to survive on my wife’s part time salary if we can keep a renter. I will be planting food producing trees and bushes, and building garden boxes after close, and learning canning.
Look for bareroot trees if you want a better deal.
